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這四件事情表明,美國通脹真的要降下來了

這四件事情表明,美國通脹真的要降下來了

Tristan Bove 2022-11-14
一位頂級經濟學家表示,有其他幾個因素表明,可能使通脹會持續下降。

通脹見頂了嗎?圖片來源:DRAZEN ZIGIC—ISTOCK/GETTY IMAGES

通脹的至暗時刻會終結,而前方是希望的曙光?

今年11月10日,美國公布的通脹報告遠好于預期,令美國人集體松了一口氣。10月物價同比上漲7.7%,為今年以來的最低同比漲幅,低于9月的8.2%。核心通脹率(不包括波動較大的食品和能源價格)也從9月創下的40年高點回落。

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)今年多次采取激進舉措,旨在抑制通脹,今年批準了六次加息,以減緩經濟活動。但一位頂級經濟學家表示,還有其他幾個因素表明,通脹可能會持續下降。

“這是一份鼓舞人心的通脹報告。通脹很有可能已經見頂,目前正在下降?!泵苄髮W(University of Michigan)的經濟學家賈斯汀·沃爾弗斯于11月10日在推特(Twitter)上寫道。沃爾弗斯此前被國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)評為“塑造我們思考全球經濟方式”的25位年輕經濟學家之一。

他寫道:“目前越來越明晰的是通脹即將降下來?!彼a充稱,最新的通脹報告,加上四大關鍵的經濟轉變,應該表明通脹最糟糕的時期已經過去。

恢復正常?

按照目前的加息策略,并假設經濟沒有遭受任何意外的重大沖擊,美聯儲預計2023年通脹率中值將降至3.1%,2024年降至2.3%,接近美聯儲2%的通脹目標。

沃爾弗斯在推特上表示同意美聯儲的預測,并援引了四大經濟因素。

首先,沃爾弗斯指出,今年2月發生的俄烏沖突造成的嚴重能源沖擊現在已經“成為過去”。當沖突開始時,立即擾亂了全球能源市場,使得美國的汽油價格在去年春天飆升至歷史最高點。自那以后,燃料價格已經恢復到相對正常的水平,盡管全球天然氣和石油短缺正在歐洲和大多數發展中國家引發能源危機,但美國已經避開了最糟糕的時期。

其次,沃爾弗斯認為,商品(相對于無形的服務而言的實體商品)的通脹將很快下降,因為自新冠疫情爆發后,困擾全球經濟的全球供應鏈問題正在緩解。自去年以來,供應鏈問題一直是通脹的主要原因之一,中國工廠重鎮的疫情封城延長了制造交付周期,削減了可用商品的供應,迫使企業提高價格。

但根據最新的消費者物價指數(CPI)報告,一些供應鏈問題可能正在開始顯現,包括服裝在內的一些更依賴快速而高效的供應鏈的物品的價格在上月有所下降。沃爾弗斯還指出,商品領域的通脹最近已經或多或少趨于平穩,這表明供應鏈對通脹的影響可能不像過去那么大了。

沃爾弗斯的第三個觀點圍繞經濟中服務業的通脹放緩,特別提到了醫療保健服務價格的下降。最新的消費者物價指數報告顯示,上月醫療服務價格下降了0.6%。

最后,沃爾弗斯認為,住房租賃價格在經歷了數月上漲后也出現了放緩的跡象。住房成本占上月整體消費者物價指數增幅的三分之一,但沃爾弗斯指出,“新租賃協議中的通脹一直在下降”,并補充稱,租金價格的下降往往需要更長的時間才可以在通脹數據中體現出來,并滲透到經濟中。

諾貝爾獎得主、經濟學家保羅·克魯格曼在11月10日也指出,“壓倒性的證據”表明,盡管住房成本在上月的通脹中發揮了巨大作用,但最近幾個月新租戶的租金價格已經明顯放緩,甚至可能已經出現逆轉。

與沃爾弗斯一樣,克魯格曼寫道,租金價格的變化可能需要一段時間才能夠滲透到經濟中,但最近租金價格的放緩表明,潛在通脹可能很快就會“得到控制”。

是否是暫時的?

沃爾弗斯寫道,把所有這些因素綜合起來考慮,他認為通脹實際上會放緩,與美聯儲明年3%的預測一致。

沃爾弗斯指出,如果發生這種情況,通脹甚至可能“從公眾視野中消失”,并補充稱,它甚至可能被銘記為“暫時性”現象,就像包括美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾和美國財政部部長珍妮特·耶倫在內的官員于去年承諾的那樣,即使通脹的消散時間比最初預期的要長。

“我的猜測是,如果沒有其他沖擊,我們最終會在幾年后得出這樣的結論:通脹實際上是*暫時的*,但‘暫時’這個詞的含義是你認為的‘暫時’一詞含義的時長的兩倍?!蔽譅柛ニ箤懙?。(財富中文網)

譯者:中慧言-王芳

通脹的至暗時刻會終結,而前方是希望的曙光?

今年11月10日,美國公布的通脹報告遠好于預期,令美國人集體松了一口氣。10月物價同比上漲7.7%,為今年以來的最低同比漲幅,低于9月的8.2%。核心通脹率(不包括波動較大的食品和能源價格)也從9月創下的40年高點回落。

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)今年多次采取激進舉措,旨在抑制通脹,今年批準了六次加息,以減緩經濟活動。但一位頂級經濟學家表示,還有其他幾個因素表明,通脹可能會持續下降。

“這是一份鼓舞人心的通脹報告。通脹很有可能已經見頂,目前正在下降?!泵苄髮W(University of Michigan)的經濟學家賈斯汀·沃爾弗斯于11月10日在推特(Twitter)上寫道。沃爾弗斯此前被國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)評為“塑造我們思考全球經濟方式”的25位年輕經濟學家之一。

他寫道:“目前越來越明晰的是通脹即將降下來?!彼a充稱,最新的通脹報告,加上四大關鍵的經濟轉變,應該表明通脹最糟糕的時期已經過去。

恢復正常?

按照目前的加息策略,并假設經濟沒有遭受任何意外的重大沖擊,美聯儲預計2023年通脹率中值將降至3.1%,2024年降至2.3%,接近美聯儲2%的通脹目標。

沃爾弗斯在推特上表示同意美聯儲的預測,并援引了四大經濟因素。

首先,沃爾弗斯指出,今年2月發生的俄烏沖突造成的嚴重能源沖擊現在已經“成為過去”。當沖突開始時,立即擾亂了全球能源市場,使得美國的汽油價格在去年春天飆升至歷史最高點。自那以后,燃料價格已經恢復到相對正常的水平,盡管全球天然氣和石油短缺正在歐洲和大多數發展中國家引發能源危機,但美國已經避開了最糟糕的時期。

其次,沃爾弗斯認為,商品(相對于無形的服務而言的實體商品)的通脹將很快下降,因為自新冠疫情爆發后,困擾全球經濟的全球供應鏈問題正在緩解。自去年以來,供應鏈問題一直是通脹的主要原因之一,中國工廠重鎮的疫情封城延長了制造交付周期,削減了可用商品的供應,迫使企業提高價格。

但根據最新的消費者物價指數(CPI)報告,一些供應鏈問題可能正在開始顯現,包括服裝在內的一些更依賴快速而高效的供應鏈的物品的價格在上月有所下降。沃爾弗斯還指出,商品領域的通脹最近已經或多或少趨于平穩,這表明供應鏈對通脹的影響可能不像過去那么大了。

沃爾弗斯的第三個觀點圍繞經濟中服務業的通脹放緩,特別提到了醫療保健服務價格的下降。最新的消費者物價指數報告顯示,上月醫療服務價格下降了0.6%。

最后,沃爾弗斯認為,住房租賃價格在經歷了數月上漲后也出現了放緩的跡象。住房成本占上月整體消費者物價指數增幅的三分之一,但沃爾弗斯指出,“新租賃協議中的通脹一直在下降”,并補充稱,租金價格的下降往往需要更長的時間才可以在通脹數據中體現出來,并滲透到經濟中。

諾貝爾獎得主、經濟學家保羅·克魯格曼在11月10日也指出,“壓倒性的證據”表明,盡管住房成本在上月的通脹中發揮了巨大作用,但最近幾個月新租戶的租金價格已經明顯放緩,甚至可能已經出現逆轉。

與沃爾弗斯一樣,克魯格曼寫道,租金價格的變化可能需要一段時間才能夠滲透到經濟中,但最近租金價格的放緩表明,潛在通脹可能很快就會“得到控制”。

是否是暫時的?

沃爾弗斯寫道,把所有這些因素綜合起來考慮,他認為通脹實際上會放緩,與美聯儲明年3%的預測一致。

沃爾弗斯指出,如果發生這種情況,通脹甚至可能“從公眾視野中消失”,并補充稱,它甚至可能被銘記為“暫時性”現象,就像包括美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾和美國財政部部長珍妮特·耶倫在內的官員于去年承諾的那樣,即使通脹的消散時間比最初預期的要長。

“我的猜測是,如果沒有其他沖擊,我們最終會在幾年后得出這樣的結論:通脹實際上是*暫時的*,但‘暫時’這個詞的含義是你認為的‘暫時’一詞含義的時長的兩倍?!蔽譅柛ニ箤懙?。(財富中文網)

譯者:中慧言-王芳

Is there light at the end of the inflation tunnel?

On November 10, the U.S. economy let out a collective sigh of relief over a much better than expected inflation report. Prices in October increased by an annual rate of 7.7%, the slowest annual increase this year and down from 8.2% in September. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, also retreated from a 40-year high hit in September.

The Federal Reserve has embarked on an ambitious campaign this year to clamp down on inflation, approving six interest rate hikes this year in a bid to slow the economy. But there are several other factors suggesting the latest decline in inflation may be sustained, according to one top economist.

“This is a very encouraging inflation report. There’s a good chance that inflation has peaked, and is now turning down,” Justin Wolfers—a University of Michigan economist whom the IMF has previously named as one of 25 young economists who are “shaping the way we think about the global economy”—wrote on Twitter on November 10.

“The story about the coming decline in inflation is now becoming clearer,” he wrote, adding that the most recent inflation report, combined with four critical economic shifts, should signal that the worst of inflation has already passed.

Back to normal?

With its current strategy of interest rate hikes, and assuming the economy doesn’t suffer from any unexpected major shocks, the Fed has projected inflation to decline to a median rate of 3.1% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, close to the central bank’s target of a stable 2% inflation rate.

In his Twitter post, Wolfers agreed with the Fed’s forecasts, citing four economic factors.

First, Wolfers noted that the worst of the energy shocks caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February are now “behind us.” When the war began, it immediately disrupted global energy markets, sending U.S. gasoline prices soaring to record highs last spring. Fuel prices have since returned to relatively normal levels, and while a global natural gas and oil crunch is sparking an energy crisis in Europe and most of the developing world, the U.S. has been able to skate past the worst of it.

Second, Wolfers argued that inflation of goods—physical items as opposed to intangible services—was set to decline soon because the global supply-chain problems that have plagued the global economy since the pandemic are easing. Supply-chain issues have been among the leading causes of inflation since last year, with COVID lockdowns in China’s factory hubs prolonging manufacturing lead times and cutting into the supply of available goods, forcing companies to raise prices.

But some supply-chain snags may be starting to unfurl, according to the latest consumer price index (CPI) report, with the price of some items that are more reliant on fast and efficient supply chains, including apparel, declining last month. Wolfers also noted that inflation in the goods sector has more or less plateaued recently, suggesting supply chains may not weigh as much on inflation as they used to.

Wolfers’s third point revolved around slowing inflation for services in the economy, specifically citing lower prices for health care services. The latest CPI report showed the prices for medical services declined 0.6% last month.

Lastly, Wolfers argued that home rental prices were also showing signs of moderating after months of increases. Shelter costs made up a third of the overall CPI increase last month, but Wolfers noted that “inflation in new rental agreements has been falling,” adding that rental price declines tend to take longer to show up in inflation data and filter through the economy.

Nobel Prize–winning economist Paul Krugman also noted on November 10 that there was “overwhelming evidence” that rental rates given to new renters had slowed significantly in recent months, and may have even reversed, despite the outsize role shelter costs played in last month’s inflation.

Like Wolfers, Krugman wrote that changes in rental prices could take time to filter into the economy, but the recent slowdown in rental prices suggests underlying inflation could soon be coming “under control.”

Transitory or not?

Wolfers wrote that when putting all these elements together, he could see inflation realistically moderating in line with the Fed’s forecast of 3% next year.

Should that happen, inflation may even “recede from the public view,” Wolfers noted, adding that it might even be remembered as the “transitory” and temporary phenomenon officials including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen promised it would be last year, even if it took longer to dissipate than first thought.

“My guess is that—if other shocks don’t intervene—we’ll end up concluding in a couple of years that inflation was in fact *transitory,* but that the word transitory means ‘twice as long as you thought the word transitory meant.’” Wolfers wrote.

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